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Page 4 of 12 We now are at the halfway point in the election campaign and whilst I've noted before that election campaign polling can be more volatile than the pre-election period, it's all we have to go by, so this is what it shows. Pollsters used are A C Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy.
Since the 2004 election over 1.3 million people or nearly 10%, have shifted their primary votes to the ALP; and as it stands in the campaign currently, around 720,000 or 5.3% have come from the Coalition and around 610,000 or 4.5% have come from the Others. In two party preferred terms, around 925,000 or 6.8% have swung to the ALP.
In the campaign, compared to the pre-election polling; the Coalition has picked up around 280,000 primary votes or 2.1%, and almost all of it 260,000 or 2% has come from the Others category, only 20,000 or 0.1% has come from the ALP.
In two party preferred terms, that translates to 175,000 votes or a swing back of 1.3%, hence the perceived narrowing.
Those 175,000 two party votes have come almost exclusively from the other parties and not the ALP. To get to the "conventional wisdom" target of 48.5% TPP the Coalition needs to shift another 350,000 or 2.6%, which is double what they have achieved so far. 
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