The latest newspoll is out and already we can hear cries of a re-invigorated Coalition. Is there any truth to these claims? Is this anything more than statistical noise? For now, a brief look at what these numbers mean in the context of the previous Newspoll results. Read on for graphs.

First up, we've got the primary votes, averaged month by month, of all of the past Newspolls going back to February.

Looking at this, three things become clear. Firstly, the Coalition's primary vote for the month of October has not imrpoved from September - in fact, it's gone down to 39.67. This month we've had 3 Newspolls, with Liberal primaries on 39, 38 and 42.

Secondly, Labor's primary vote is up from last month by 2 points. They're on their highest primary vote for the entire year! The 3 polls for this month showed 48, 51 and 48. Hardly good news for the Coalition.

Finally, the minor party vote has been steadily decreasing. Down from 15 in June, it's now on 10.5. That's a 4.5 point drop, of which 3.5 points seem to have gone to Labor and only 1 point to the Coalition.

All in all, terrible news for the Coalition. While the Coalition is in its bes primary position all year, so is Labor. This is all at the expense of the minor parties!

Next up, the two party preferred graph: 

Not much to say here. On a two-party preferred basis, it's been flat since June. Note that Newspoll does not ask electors how they will vote. They base preferences on how people voted at the last election. Approximately 60% of preferences are allocated to Labor. This may, or may not be correct. The two party preferred vote also tends to hide the underlying trend. You're much better off looking at the primaries.

Further discussion on this can either take place here (Comment down the bottom) or in this thread on the Oz Election Forums.

We've got a couple of interesting new articles up, so have a look here for a discussion on the future of Australian democracy, and here for an exploration of the home-state advantage for federal politicans.

- JJ

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