Well, not so much.

Galaxy has the 2pp vote at 53-47, 45-43 on primaries.

AC Nielsen has the 2pp vote at 54-46, 48-42 on primaries.

What is interesting to note - and what should calm those nerves - is that Labor's primary vote has held firm. It has only dipped one point on the Galaxy poll, and remained steady in the Nielsen poll.

Thus, it seems that the Coalition has managed to bring voters across from the minor parties.

Make no mistake, Labor is in election-winning territory with a primary vote above 45% as they will receive above 65% of minor party preferences.

Graphs below.

First up, the AC Nielsen 2pp line graph, with overlaid 3-period moving average:

From this it seems that the Coalition is in its best position since April on a 2pp basis. The trendline gives us just below 45 for the Coalition, which is probably more realistic as it cleans up the noise in the data.

Looking at the primaries for AC Nielsen:

This tells a slightly different story. Labor's primary vote is looking strong on 48. Equal to the months of May & June, it's the 3rd best result that they've seen all since April in the Nielsen poll. Looking at the Coalition's primary vote, we see that they are at their best position since April.

Moving on to Galaxy.

First up, 2pp:

Here we see that this is the worst showing for Labor and conversely the best for the Coalition all year on a 2pp basis, repeating the result seen just after the budget. The 3-period average trendline points to a 2pp value of close to 45 for the Coalition, the same as the trendline in the Nielsen poll.

 Looking at primaries:

Labor is at their 2nd worst position since April in the Galaxy series on 45, while the Coalition is at their highest since April on 43%.

I would caution people to wait for the next round of polling data before drawing any conclusions. Also, keep in mind that Labor's primary vote is very strong. On the Galaxy data, only down 1 point from September and on the Nielsen data, stable from September.

Finally - and off the topic of opinion poll - if you haven't already seen this, have a look at this brief analysis of Howard's tax cuts - they fail the economist's definition of fair tax cuts.

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