Howard announces a nationwide ban on headscarves in the public school system.

Won't happen you say?

Well, maybe it won't, but what if it did? How would the voting public react? This is one of those emotive wedges that fires up opinions in the voting public.

I agree it would be against the Liberal ideals of freedom of religious expression, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Crikey talked about the possibility of Kevin Andrews enacting a ban on headscarves at our airports. I don't see how that could even work - but the fact that rumours about this sort of thing are around give us clues as to how the government is thinking.

Fear-based politics is the only thing this government has left. It's my view that the tax cuts this week will be their only attempt at above-board, positive politicking. If you call vote-buying positive that is.

Get read for fear fear fear and more fear. Headscarves. Terrorists. Muslim invasions. Asteroids. Aliens.

Anyone care to suggest other potential wedges the Coalition might try this time?

 ---------------------

"PM's Stock Rises on Economy, IR" - The Australian

Also, today you might see headlines referring to Howard's ascendancy over Rudd as preferred economic manager & national security bigwig.

On the economy, Shanahan says:

Before Mr Rudd replaced Kim Beazley as Labor leader in December last year, the Coalition was leading on the issue of the economy by 54 per cent to 22 per cent. In February, Mr Rudd cut the lead back, with Labor on 29 per cent and the Coalition on 51 per cent.

But last weekend, before the Government unveiled its $34billion tax-cut package, the Coalition slightly improved its position to 53 per cent compared with Labor's 29 per cent.

Clearly, these movements are not significant. A look at the graph below will tell you all you need to know - there has been no real movement on this question since February.

Next up, who is best to manage national security. Shanahan says:

In October last year, national security was an area where the Government had a clear lead - 52 per cent to 21per cent - but Labor made gains in the poll back in February this year after Mr Rudd became leader. In February, the Coalition led

44 per cent to Labor's 31 per cent on national security. But last weekend, the 13-point lead had risen to 23 points, 49 per cent to Labor's 26 per cent.

Looking at the numbers, it does seem that there has been significant movement back to the Coalition on the question of national security. The graph below makes that quite clear.

Finally, we have industrial relations. On this Shanahan says:

A Newspoll survey conducted exclusively for The Australian reveals that Labor's lead over the Coalition on the question of who would be best to handle industrial relations has almost halved this year and is back to where it was when John Howard proposed Work Choices.

Again, this is true and the movement is considered significant. That said, Labor still has a commanding lead on the question. In fact, it seems almost identical to the current primary voting intention.

Although the headline screams doom & gloom for Labor supporters, the issues I did not cover here in detail show Labor ahead by phenomenal amounts. A brief list:

• Health & Medicare: 47-33
• Education: 50-30
• Welfare & Social Issues: 51-28
• Environment: 39-25
• Water Planning: 35-31

The most important issues are, in order:

1. Health & Medicare
2. Water Planning
3. Education
4. The environment
5. The economy
6. Welfare & Social Issues
7. Leadership
8. National Security
9. Industrial Relations

Note that Labor controls the top 4 issues - all but water planning by a minimum of 14%. Funny that Shanahan harps on and on about the 2 issues where the Coalition has a clear lead - even though they're ranked 5th and 8th.

Also, I think it's quite interesting to note that although leadership is listed as one of the 9 important issues, there is no data on a leadership question. I wonder if that's because there were no questions asked on this issue, or if the answers were too damaging for the Coalition. 

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