| 2007 Australian Federal Election Seat Predictions |
| Monday, 15 October 2007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Page 4 of 8 2007 Australian Federal Election seat predictions have been made by establishing trends of the Two Party Preferred votes in each seat against the state Two Party Preferred vote. These trends have then been applied to the September 2007 quarterly Newspoll results to predict which seats might change hands on November 24th.
Examining the Two Party Preferred (2PP) results for the House of Representatives from the previous four Australian Federal elections can indicate that most seats have a similar fraction of the overall state 2PP votes over time. Using election data from the 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 federal elections enables comparisons between seat 2PP results and the overall results in that particular state. The percentage results for each seat have been averaged and a standard deviation has been computed. Applying this test to a given 2PP result (say, from the September 2007 quarterly Newspoll, which gave 2PP scores for each state) then gives a range of possible 2PP results at the November 24, 2007 federal election. This range is calculated to be the computed mean fraction of the statewide 2PP, plus or minus the computed standard deviation of the fraction of the statewide 2PP. Examples To illustrate this approach, let’s look at some seats in New South Wales, and let’s take the ALP 2PP numbers as our benchmark:
Note: the ALP 2PP numbers above are averaged over all seats. They are NOT the actual 2PP vote recorded in the state for that election. In the examples above, whatever the NSW ALP 2PP statewide result is, Bennelong will be between 82.8 and 92.4% of that, while Eden-Monaro will be between 95.5 and 99.3%. Macarthur will be between 83.7 and 86.9% of the statewide ALP 2PP, and North Sydney will be between 71.4 and 80.6% . From these numbers alone, it is easy to see why Eden-Monaro is considered the “bellwether” of the federal election, given that it closely follows the national 2PP and doesn’t vary much. Applying the method Using the above method, we can construct a series of percentage ranges for the each seat versus the ALP 2PP in the states. Putting the statewide 2PP results in from the most recent Newspoll then gives a range of 2PP results for each seat. From this range, if the high and low bounds are both greater than 50%, we can say that the seat will be an ALP gain (or retain). If the low bound is below 50%, and the high bound is above 50%, but by a further margin (say 48.2 to 56.7%, for instance), we can say that the seat is a Likely ALP gain (or retain). If the low bound is below 50% by a wider margin than the upper bound (say, 44.5 to 51.2) we can say that the seat is a Likely Coalition gain (or retain) and finally, if both low and high bounds are below 50%, we can say that the seat is a Coalition gain (or retain). Applying these standards to the September Newspoll 2PP for the ALP in New South Wales gives the following results:
Predictions We can now use this criterion on all seats in the country, and determine where gains (or losses) will be made, and what the likely changeover of seats will be if the latest quarterly Newspoll figures (as an example) are repeated on election day. Using those figures, we get the results in the table below. Note that “Likely coalition retain” means that the coalition will probably hold that seat, but there is a chance that the ALP can win it. Please also note that of course there are local issues at stake, particularly with members retiring (e.g. Lindsay, Grey) that can affect the result. Alarmingly for the Coalition, there are NO seats in which there is even a chance, on these criteria that the Coalition will gain any seats from the ALP.
NOTES:
Analysis These numbers indicate defeat for the Lib-NP Coalition if the above 2PP poll results are repeated on November 24th. The ALP needs 16 seats to form government, and from the above table, they will gain at least 22, likely 39, and possibly up to 54 seats. - Scott McCamish
Sources:
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