Friday Ongoing Report (October 5)
Sunday, 07 October 2007
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Friday Ongoing Report (October 5)
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Update 1:40pm:

Latest Roy Morgan Poll 61-39!

Looks like the high numbers from last week have held up in Gary Morgan's polling world . Labor's primary is at 53.5% (enough to win the country without preferences), with the Coalition on an abysmal 35.5%. Minor parties sees the Greens on 5.5%, Family First 1.5% and Democrats 1.5%.

In the think will win category, 61% think the ALP will win, with only 29% thinking the Coalition will succeed. 

Again there is more talk of Labor's "soft support". I will be dissecting Gary Morgan's argument in a later post in a couple of hours. Tables & graphs to come shortly.

Liberal Party Polling: 

Internal Liberal party polling puts them behind 10.6% on a 2pp basis, according to Crikey (subscription required). Adds to the mass of reasons why Howard might seek to put off the election even later. Parliament will resume sitting on the 15th of October if the election is not called before then. Perhaps Howard will want to push through some final pieces of legislation.. we'll find out shortly anyway!

2_sudanAfrican Refugees: 

New Queensland Premier Anna Bligh seems to be continuing Beattie's tradition of criticising the Coalition from the Left while Rudd stays silent. This time it's on the halting of intake of African (predominantly Sudanese) refugees, which the sententious and secretive Immigration minister, Kevin Andrews announced.

He initially explain that he could not reveal his 'evidence' as it was secret. Then he  released a brief of allegations about African migrants, which he attributed to "feedback from various ethnic organisations" about events that occurred in their local community: -

"Concerns about the establishment of race-based gangs, reports of altercations between African groups in nightclubs and at community functions, disagreements among prominent African community organisations over accusations that some are receiving favoured treatment in accessing community services...

Tensions have arisen between some African families involving conflict and assault, concern among some community leaders as to the increase in crime among some African youths, and reports of a developing trend of young African males congregating in parks at night, often to consume alcohol."

He, however, failed to release the documents containing these allegations, claiming that it would discourage community groups from coming forward in future.

His decision has even been attacked by some MPs within Coalition ranks:

  • Nationals MP John Forrest confirmed wrote to Mr Andrews and asked him to explain the decision. In reference to the Sudanese refugees, he said "They're beautiful people. I've just written to the minister asking for a brief and urged him if we've got to the quota to look at extending it. We need to get them out of those big, terrible cities. That poor little chap who was bashed the other day. It wouldn't happen here."
  • Another (un-named) Liberal MP claimed the imposed limit was a result of UNHCR advice that Burma and Iraq were greater priorities and suggested that Kevin Andrews' justification for the changes on the grounds of violence had "overtones of racism".

It certainly does seem that, as usual, the Coalition is trying to appeal to that nasty undercurrent of xenophobia that they were so successful in exploiting in 2001. Make no mistake, Kevin Andrews would not have said what he did without express approval from the PM himself. The same as with the entire Mohammed Haneef affair. They are trying to gain political mileage out of something that affects the lives and welfare  hundreds - perhaps thousands - of people, who are living in some of the worst situations imaginable on this planet (Darfur).

Federal Hospital Funding:

Abbott likes to shout about how the states don't look after the public health system properly. A new report , however, finds that the funding contributed by the Federal government dropped from 45% to 41% of the total expenditure versus an increase on state funding to 51%. 

It also finds that the growth in spending in the health sector has slowed to only 3% over the 2005-2006 financial year. However, the slow growth is mainly accounted for by the medical services and pharmaceuticals sector as spending in public hospitals has risen by 6% over the same period.

Tony Abbott conceded today that "The Commonwealth has been increasing its funding as well, just not as fast," .

New South Wales Health Minister Reba Meagher said the report showed the Federal government was not serious about improve the state of health care.

"They're sitting on a $17 billion surplus and they should be directing that money towards building a strong public health care system in the country... Now it has been quite unfair of Tony Abbott to sit there and point the finger at the states over the running of public hospitals knowing full well that his Government isn't making the contribution that it can and that it should."

It seems to be a damaging report for the Federal government - a real slap in the face for Abbott. It remains to be seen what kind of coverage this report receives in the mainstream press.

Earlier:

This one will have to be very brief until I get a chance to update at around 11:00am.

A few interesting articles for your persual:

Hockey claims that Rudd will exile unwanted public servants into 'gulags'.

Shanahan's editorial on Labor's support for the Pulp Mill proposal is refreshingly accurate and, on first reading, I didn't spot any criticisms, veiled or otherwise.

Expect new tax packages from both parties soon, with working mums as the target. Considering that this is one demographic which the Coalition has neglected for a while it will be interesting to see how juicy they can make the steak. Tax policy is a bit of a game of poker right now - who will show their cards first is the question? The coalition is constantly taunting Labor, but I think Rudd might wait on this one. The Coalition's tax policy will be one of the central platforms of their re-election campaign. Labor will want a very good comeback.

Perhaps an open question to you all to stir some debate - what would you do to win this election IF you were John Howard and knew you had $17.3 billion to throw around?

(I've explored this concept in another article, here, but I'm interested in your views!)

 More later..


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