| Friday Ongoing Report (September 28) |
| Sunday, 07 October 2007 | |||||||||||||||||||
Page 5 of 9 Update 4:52pm: A new Morgan Poll is out, putting Labor's primary vote at its highest ever (54%). The Coalition is on 36, and Greens 5.5. Morgan gives a 2pp of 60.5/39.5. Interestingly, despite Labor's primary vote increasing, the percentage of people who think Labor will win has dropped from 63% to 55.5%, perhaps reflecting the media's reports of a Lazarus-like comeback for Howard with a 55-45 Newspoll result. It confirms what the Galaxy Poll (56/44), taken over the same period, showed - namely that Rudd did not take a hit from the fiasco in Question Time over smear allegations. This balances out nicely with the previous weekly poll from Morgan that had the Coalition up 3.5% on primary votes. I think that poll was on the high side for the Coalition just as this poll is on the high side for Labor. There is quite a bit of noise in Morgan's polling series - probably due to his move to weekly poll results and thus a consequent lowering of the sample number (~950 / week). So, taken together, these two polls show Labor on a 2pp of around 58%. This is still on the high side when compared with Aristotle's latest summaries, though consistent with the idea from many people that Morgan tends to overestimate Labor's 2pp vote by 2%. However, if we take the last 4 polls from Morgan and average Labor's primary vote, it gives us 48.88% - only 0.53% off from the average Labor primary from the most recent 23 polls (including AC Nielsen, Galaxy, Newspoll and Roy Morgan). Thus I think it is best to keep an eye on Morgan's primaries and pay less attention to the 2pp figure.
Update 1:00pm: I mentioned yesterday the possibility of an interest rate rise in November. There's a headline article at the Herald which talks about that possibility. It says "With the next consumer price index due for release on October 24, and forecast to be an uncomfortably high 1.3 per cent, Mr Williamson said there were some compelling reasons for the RBA to raise the official cash rate at its November meeting." Considering the irrigation issues with the Murray Darling as well as Howard's comments today on upcoming food shortages , it is somewhat suprising to see that the price of fruit and vegetables have not gone up - in fact they're down 3.7%. That said, meat & seafood, on the other hand, are up substantially (no figure provided). The article cautions that the one thing that may prevent a rate rise this year is the "ongoing volatility in financial markets." Earlier:
Dennis Shanahan writes in the Australian today about the disconnect between Labor's leaking of polls showing them miles in front in marginal seats (some safe ones too) and Rudd's insistence that it will be a very tight contest. He says "A combination of the crushing public polls, frenetic betting markets and leaked polling has led many Labor MPs and candidates to expect that they will simply roll over Coalition opponents and form a Rudd Labor government. There are some who are eyeing more highly paid positions and coveted ministerial posts and it is creating the image of a cocky Opposition taking the electorate for granted." Now, other than the beatup we saw in the News Corp tabloids the other day , there has been no real story, no real proof that there is any such image being created. Coalition ministers have certainly been talking about Labor's cockiness - but, aside from the one story I just mentioned, there has been no evidence of this on Labor's part. I wrote at the time: "Despite the extreme discipline being shown by Rudd and his team, with very little evidence of hubris, I think we can expect to see many more of these kinds of stories once the election is underway. ", and only 3 days later we see Shanahan banging the drums once more. What he is trying to do is create a narrative - an alternate view of reality which permits an environment where any minor slip-up by a Labor MP can be blown out of proportion. Anything which could in any way be construed as cocky will be given top billing. I wouldn't be surprised if such a story comes up over the course of the next day or two, just in time to try and affect the Newspoll polling taking place this weekend Shanahan even has some kind words for Rudd at the end of his piece - "It's extraordinary and a tribute to Rudd that only 10 months after being written off, Labor is now in a position of trying to fight complacency, arrogance and cockiness.". I have to say, this makes me all the more wary. Beware of News Corp journos bearing praise. More later...
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