The Coalition got as much milage out of the story as they could - with stories about "secret pacts" and numerous attacks on Gillard. I do wonder if these continued attacks on her are counter-productive for the Coalition. She seems to be a good media-performer and well-liked by the public - she even outrated Costello as preferred PM .

The 'Narrowing Polls':
There's a very good piece on Possum's Blog regarding the common view in the mainstream media that the polls should narrow when the election starts.

 New Poll Shows 1 in 5 former Coalition voters switch to Labor:
On the topic of poll's, there is a new poll that shows 1 in 5 people who voted Coalition at the 2004 election have switched to voting Labor. That's close to 10% of total voters. If that kind of result is repeated at the election, it's landslide Labor territory.

From this poll it's very telling that "More than one in eight borrowers, or 13 per cent, thought that their mortgage was worth more than their home." and "More than half of the respondents - 53 per cent - said they would have difficulty repaying their home loans if interest rates rose by 1 percentage point.".

So it is clear that mortgage stress is one of the very factors affecting this election. Labor & Liberal policy releases on this during the campaign might have a huge impact on the vote.

If you mised this segment on interest rates in the ongoing reports, here it is again

ON the economy, it looks increasingly likely that there will be another interest rate rise either this year or early next. I wonder what that will do to the election timing. If Howard calls it for after November 3, as he is likely to do, that puts him at risk of a rise (RBA board meets Nov 7). "Core inflation is expected to touch the top of the central bank's 2 to 3 per cent target range in the final quarter of 2007." - if it touches 3, it would almost certainly necessitate the RBA lifting rates once more. That couldn't be good news for the Coalition.

We mustn't also forget the likelihood that the inflation figures will be boosted by increasing irrigation costs and food shortages along the Murray-Darling - "No more water in 6 weeks! (referring to NSW irrigators)" . Not to mention possibly military intervention in Iran which could boost oil prices further - " French Prime Minister François Fillon has said tensions with Iran are now “extreme”, heightening a diplomatic storm caused by Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner’s warning on September 16 that the world should prepare for a possible conflict over Iran’s alleged work on a nuclear weapon."

That said, a Guest poster on this site commented that:

"There's a pretty large disconnect between the general media and the Financial world on this.  
 
Inflation could necessitate another rate rise, but I very much doubt it could do so in time for it to hurt Howard at the election. Look for Feb next year as the next rise."

  Coalition Billboard Advertising:

Here's a Coalition billboard ad up in Queensland.  

Amber Dekstris (from the Ozelection2007 forums) comments that "Don't Risk Rudd" looks alot like "Learner Latham", don't you think? No doubt this billboard is based on some market research but still, how can Howard expect it to work? Election ploys are one-shot devices. Especially this particular ploy when you would be hard-pressed to find someone who would say that Rudd is another Latham. Is Howard truly so bereft? "

I also can't help but think that the hanging R is designed to subconsciously make you read "KRUDD" . I can't really see this succeeding. This kind of advertising can really only reinforce pre-existing views - and Rudd is sitting pretty  with a 60%+ approval rating. (Click the image for big)

 Miscarriage Report Hospital Criticism:
Finally, Abbott has come out blaming the miscarriage incident in the Royal North Shore Hospital (NSW) on Labor. He said "If you don't like what's happening in public hospitals now, don't vote Labor, because state Labor has created this problem and I think federal Labor would just make the problem worse." 

Howard did not hold the same view:

"This is one of those things that sadly could happen in a hospital no matter who was running the hospital," he said.

"No matter what government runs a hospital, no matter what funding arrangements you have, what adequacy of resources there is, there can be administrative mistakes and in the end, human error occurs."

Howard refused to rebuke Abbott for his comments.

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