Fair News Australia - Aristotle's 1996 vs 2007 Analysis (October 2)

Aristotle's 1996 vs 2007 Analysis (October 2)

Sunday, 07 October 2007

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Aristotle's 1996 vs 2007 Analysis (October 2)
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We now have a large bank of polling data in 2007 and it's very interesting to compare the patterns with the lead up to the 1996 election. (see tables below)

In 1995, 10 months of polls combined, compared with what was actually achieved in the election, was within 0.1% of the L/NP primary vote (47.1 vs 47.0), 0.3% of the ALP primary vote (38.4 vs 38.7), and 0.2% of the two party vote. Extraordinarily accurate.

Breaking down the data into 5 periods of 2 months shows that the primary vote polling for the L/NP ranged between 46 and 48.8 compared with the election result of 47.0, and for the ALP between 37.1 and 39.1 compared with the election result of 38.7.

In 2007, the 10 months polls combined show the primary votes at L/NP 37.6 and ALP 48.5 TPP 43.2/56.8.

These 2 month periods show that the L/NP primary vote has ranged between 36.6 and 39.0, and the ALP primary vote has ranged between 46.5 and 49.8, with L/NP two party vote between 42 and 45.5 and for the ALP between 55.5 and 58.

2007 has a very similar look to 1996 and if it continues to follow that pattern (TPP election result = +/- 0.2% of 10 months polling) it would result in an ALP TPP of between 56.6 and 57.0, a swing of between 9.4% and 9.8%, and a hypothetical seat win of 40 to 43 seats.

Lead up to the 1996 election

10 months following the elevation of John Howard to the Liberal leadership in late Jan 1995. All pollsters. Two party preference flow @ 46% to the L/NP (actual election result)

Lead up to 1996		L/NP	ALP	Others		L/NP	ALP
1996 Election Result	March 2nd	47.0	38.7	14.3	TPP	53.6	46.4
All 10 months (leadup)	Feb - Nov	47.1	38.4	14.5	TPP	53.8	46.2
1st 2 months polls	Feb - Mar	48.8	37.1	14.1	TPP	55.3	44.7
2nd 2 months polls	Apr - May	46.8	38.9	14.3	TPP	53.4	46.6
3rd 2 months polls	Jun - July	47.1	39.1	13.8	TPP	53.5	46.5
4th 2 months polls	Aug - Sep	46.0	38.8	15.2	TPP	53.0	47.0
5th 2 months polls	Oct - Nov	47.0	38.2	14.8	TPP	53.8	46.2

Lead up to the 2007 election

10 months following the elevation of Kevin Rudd to the ALP leadership in Dec 2006. All pollsters. Two party preference flow @ 60% to the ALP.

Lead up to 2007		L/NP	ALP	Others		L/NP	ALP
All 10 months (leadup)	Dec - Sep	37.6	48.5	13.9	TPP	43.2	56.8
1st 2 months polls	Dec - Jan	37.6	46.5	15.9	TPP	44.0	56.0
2nd 2 months polls	Feb - Mar	36.6	48.4	15.0	TPP	42.6	57.4
3rd 2 months polls	Apr - May	36.6	49.8	13.6	TPP	42.0	58.0
4th 2 months polls	Jun - Jul	39.0	47.3	13.7	TPP	44.5	55.5
5th 2 months polls	Aug - Sep	38.2	48.7	13.1	TPP	43.4	56.6

Now to the graphs! First up we have a 2pp line graph, comparing the 2pp results for the 4 sets of 2months worth of polls, February through to September. It's very bad news for the Coalition. They're travelling worse than Labor was in 1996. Furthermore, their 2pp numbers have not broken through Labor's '96 line over the entire period.

As usual, Red represents the ALP, with the dashed line showing the 1996 poll numbers. Blue for LNP, with dashed showing 96 poll numbers.
2_2pplinegraph

Now for a quite busy-looking graph, which shows the 2pp's of both parties on a column chart. Here you can see just how similar things are looking to 1996.
2_column2pp

Next up we have the ALP 1996 primary versus the Coalition 2007 primary voting intention. Again it looks bad for the Coalition, very bad. Their primary vote has not broken above Labor's primary vote in '96. Compound this with the fact that in 1996, Labor received a greater shared of Others preferences (54% to the Coalition's 46%) and the situation is even worse.

2_alp96primary

Finally, the LNP 1996 Primary versus ALP 2007 primary colum chart - which shows Labor in a stronger position than the Coalition in 1996.

2_lnp96primary

Click here to view site index, with the latest articles.

- Aristotle (data, analysis, commentary), JJ (graphs, layout, some commentary)

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