We now have a large bank of polling data in 2007 and it's very interesting to compare the patterns with the lead up to the 1996 election. (see tables below)

In 1995, 10 months of polls combined, compared with what was actually achieved in the election, was within 0.1% of the L/NP primary vote (47.1 vs 47.0), 0.3% of the ALP primary vote (38.4 vs 38.7), and 0.2% of the two party vote.  Extraordinarily accurate.

Lead up to the 2007 election

10 months following the elevation of Kevin Rudd to the ALP leadership in Dec 2006.  All pollsters. Two party preference flow @ 60% to the ALP.

Now to the graphs! First up we have a 2pp line graph, comparing the 2pp results for the 4 sets of 2months worth of polls, February through to September. It's very bad news for the Coalition. They're travelling worse than Labor was in 1996. Furthermore, their 2pp numbers have not broken through Labor's '96 line over the entire period.

As usual, Red represents the ALP, with the dashed line showing the 1996 poll numbers. Blue for LNP, with dashed showing 96 poll numbers. 

Now for a quite busy-looking graph, which shows the 2pp's of both parties on a column chart. Here you can see just how similar things are looking to 1996.

Next up we have the ALP 1996 primary versus the Coalition 2007 primary voting intention. Again it looks bad for the Coalition, very bad. Their primary vote has not broken above Labor's primary vote in '96. Compound this with the fact that in 1996, Labor received a greater shared of Others preferences (54% to the Coalition's 46%) and the situation is even worse. 

Finally, the LNP 1996 Primary versus ALP 2007 primary colum chart - which shows Labor in a stronger position than the Coalition in 1996.

Click here to view site index, with the latest articles.

 - Aristotle (data, analysis, commentary), JJ (graphs, layout, some commentary)

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