| Aristotle's 1996 vs 2007 Analysis (October 2) |
| Sunday, 07 October 2007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Page 2 of 6 We now have a large bank of polling data in 2007 and it's very interesting to compare the patterns with the lead up to the 1996 election. (see tables below) In 2007, the 10 months polls combined show the primary votes at L/NP 37.6 and ALP 48.5 TPP 43.2/56.8. These 2 month periods show that the L/NP primary vote has ranged between 36.6 and 39.0, and the ALP primary vote has ranged between 46.5 and 49.8, with L/NP two party vote between 42 and 45.5 and for the ALP between 55.5 and 58. 2007 has a very similar look to 1996 and if it continues to follow that pattern (TPP election result = +/- 0.2% of 10 months polling) it would result in an ALP TPP of between 56.6 and 57.0, a swing of between 9.4% and 9.8%, and a hypothetical seat win of 40 to 43 seats. Lead up to the 1996 election 10 months following the elevation of John Howard to the Liberal leadership in late Jan 1995. All pollsters. Two party preference flow @ 46% to the L/NP (actual election result)
Lead up to the 2007 election
As usual, Red represents the ALP, with the dashed line showing the 1996 poll numbers. Blue for LNP, with dashed showing 96 poll numbers. Now for a quite busy-looking graph, which shows the 2pp's of both parties on a column chart. Here you can see just how similar things are looking to 1996. Next up we have the ALP 1996 primary versus the Coalition 2007 primary voting intention. Again it looks bad for the Coalition, very bad. Their primary vote has not broken above Labor's primary vote in '96. Compound this with the fact that in 1996, Labor received a greater shared of Others preferences (54% to the Coalition's 46%) and the situation is even worse.
Finally, the LNP 1996 Primary versus ALP 2007 primary colum chart - which shows Labor in a stronger position than the Coalition in 1996.
Click here to view site index, with the latest articles. - Aristotle (data, analysis, commentary), JJ (graphs, layout, some commentary) Views: 3023
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