Polling Summaries (Sep 25)
Sunday, 07 October 2007
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Polling Summaries (Sep 25)
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68 polls in all, including for the first time, an on-line poll.  Increasing the range of polling techniques can only enhance the integrity of the results.

   L/NP  ALPOthers  L/NP ALP
All 68 polls Dec - Sep37.6348.38
13.99TPP43.256.8 
1st set of 17 pollsDec - Mar36.8247.89 15.29TPP42.957.1
2nd set of 17 pollsMar - May36.7449.5313.73TPP42.257.8
3rd set of 17 pollsMay - Jul38.5447.7113.75TPP44.056.0
4th set of 17 pollsJul - Sep38.3848.3913.23TPP43.756.3
Change from 1st -4th
Dec - Sep
+1.56
+0.5
-2.06TPP+0.8
-0.8

Now for the graphs, first up - Primaries:
sep25primaries 

 Next up, 2-party-preferred - showing preferences as a portion of the columns:
sep252pp

Finally - from this first table of data, a graph showing the minimal movement in the 2pp vote over the polling period from December 2006 to September 2007:
sep254sets 

The next table of data shows collated poll data per month over the last 4 months. The 2pp is calculated with ALP receiving 60% of Other vote):

   L/NP   ALP Others  L/NP ALP
June  
  39   47.3  13.7 TPP 44.5 55.5
 July      38.9  47.3  13.8 TPP 44.4 55.6
 Aug      38.5  47.9  13.6 TPP 43.9 56.1
 Sep      38  49.1  12.9 TPP 43.2 56.8

Corresponding graph:
sep254months

 - Aristotle (Data, Writing), JJ (Graphs, Editing)


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