Latest Polling Summaries (Sep 23)
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Aristotle writes:

icon_graph_011Scholars, the latest summaries show what the summaries have shown for months.  It's plain to anyone who wants to know the truth.  But as Themistocles said, "truth is a heady wine, one must never overestimate the public's capacity for it".

    L/NP   ALP Others  L/NP ALP
All 66 polls Dec - Sep 37.60 48.39  14.01 TPP43.256.8 
1st set of 11 pollsDec - Feb 37.68 46.68 15.64TPP43.956.1
2nd set of 11 pollsMar - Apr 35.50 49.77 14.73TPP41.458.6
3rd set of 11 pollsApr - May 36.96 49.82 13.22TPP42.257.8
4th set of 11 pollsMay - Jun 38.50 47.85 13.65TPP44.056.0
5th set of 11 pollsJul - Aug 38.88 47.48 13.64TPP44.355.7
6th set of 11 pollsAug - Sep 38.05 48.73 13.22TPP43.356.7
Change 1st to 6th set  +0.37 +2.05 -2.42+/- 0.6 0.
 ari1

This shows the Coalition vote has only marginally improved, the ALP vote has solidly improved, and both increases came at the expense of the Others.

Discusson on this data may take place here: http://ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=641

Another table of data, analysing the past 65 poll results in a different fashion: 

   L/NP   ALP Others
  L/NP  ALP~ Sample size 
All 65 polls 37.57 48.38  14.05 TPP
43.256.8 81,250
Last 60 polls37.63 48.41 13.96 TPP43.256.8 75,000
Last 50 polls
37.67 48.68 13.65 TPP43.156.9 62,500
Last 40 polls38.14
 48.41 13.45 TPP43.556.5 50,000
Last 30 polls38.54 47.87 13.59
 TPP44.056.0
 37,500
Last 20 polls
38.5 48.03 13.44
 TPP43.956.1 25,000
Last 10 polls 37.90 48.65 13.45 TPP43.356.7   12,500

 ari2

This table of data was used in an editorial by Gerard McManus in the Herald Sun. The article can be found here . 

- Aristotle (21/09/07)


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