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Sunday, 07 October 2007 |
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Here we have a few graphs, collating all of the Roy Morgan polls since November 2006 on the question of who do you think will win the next Federal Election. A couple of interesting things can be noted here. Although the respective ALP & LNP two party preferred votes remained stable throughout most of this polling period, there is clearly a trend upwards (for the ALP) and downwards for the LNP on the public's view regarding their chances of victory. This really just reflects common-sense. The longer Labor's huge lead holds in the polls, the more people believe that a Labor victory is likely. Furthermore, at every point after the Brian Bourke scandal where Rudd could reasonably be expected to take a hit, we see the converse - an increase in the percentage of people who think Labor will win. These movements are likely within the margin of error - but it is interesting to note nevertheless. It would be interesting to compare this data to the same period in 2004 - but unfortunately Gary Morgan did not start asking this question until after last election. Anyway, to the graphs! (click Read More...)  Comments (37) | Views: 1079
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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Sunday, 07 October 2007 |
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The latest poll is out from Galaxy, showing a 2pp of 56-44 in Labor's favour. Primaries are 46 ALP - 40 LNP. More detail available in this article . The Galaxy Polls so far this year | | 2 PP
| | Primaries | | | | LNP | ALP | LNP | ALP | | 23-Apr-07 | 42 | 58 | 37 | 49 | | 14-May-07 | 43 | 57 | 39 | 49 | | 4-Jun-07 | 47 | 53 | 42 | 44 | | 2-Jul-07 | 45 | 55 | 41 | 46 | | 30-Jul-07 | 46 | 54 | 41 | 44 | | 27-Aug-07 | 43 | 57 | 39 | 47 | | 24-Sep-07 | 44 | 56 | 40 | 46 |
Graphs below... (Overlaid is a 2-period moving average). Comments (54) | Views: 1202 |
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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Sunday, 07 October 2007 |
Aristotle writes:
 Scholars, the latest summaries show what the summaries have shown for months. It's plain to anyone who wants to know the truth. But as Themistocles said, "truth is a heady wine, one must never overestimate the public's capacity for it".
Comments (24) | Views: 368 |
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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Sunday, 07 October 2007 |
Possum Comitatus writes:
Over in The Oz, the latest Newspoll quarterly breakdown by both demographics and seat margins is out – both at the same time. There is so much data here that rather than give a riding commentary, I thought that I’d just present the data first and do the analysis in subsequent posts. There are a few very interesting things that have already popped up out of the data – mostly reinforcing the view that the Coalition Firewall strategy has been playing out and they’ve been shoring up the base… The rest of this piece can be found here at Possum Comitatus' blog. The link will open in a new window. Comments (31) | Views: 1512 |
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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Sunday, 07 October 2007 |
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Previous elections have shown that this far out from an election, the polling undertaken gives a consistent and clear picture of voting intentions. Looking at the historical data, we can also be reasonably confident of drawing some conclusions as to what the likely votes will be in the election. Comments (22) | Views: 282 |
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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