The latest newspoll is out and already we can hear cries of a re-invigorated Coalition. Is there any truth to these claims? Is this anything more than statistical noise? For now, a brief look at what these numbers mean in the context of the previous Newspoll results. Read on for graphs.

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We now have a complete summary of the first round of election campaign polls.

This is a weighted average of the results which takes into account the sample sizes.  The TPP is allocated to the ALP @ 75% of the Green vote and 45% of the Others, which translates to 62.7% of the preferences.

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We now have a large bank of polling data in 2007 and it's very interesting to compare the patterns with the lead up to the 1996 election. (see tables below)

In 1995, 10 months of polls combined, compared with what was actually achieved in the election, was within 0.1% of the L/NP primary vote (47.1 vs 47.0), 0.3% of the ALP primary vote (38.4 vs 38.7), and 0.2% of the two party vote.  Extraordinarily accurate.

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The last 70 poll including the latest Newspoll (October 1st). TPP calculated at 60% of Others vote going to the ALP.

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