The Polls
Aristotle's Polling Analysis 7/11
Tuesday, 06 November 2007

We now are at the halfway point in the election campaign and whilst I've noted before that election campaign polling can be more volatile than the pre-election period, it's all we have to go by, so this is what it shows.  Pollsters used are A C Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy.

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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 06 November 2007 )
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Newspoll 54/46 - A Resurgent Coalition?
Monday, 29 October 2007

The latest newspoll is out and already we can hear cries of a re-invigorated Coalition. Is there any truth to these claims? Is this anything more than statistical noise? For now, a brief look at what these numbers mean in the context of the previous Newspoll results. Read on for graphs.

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Last Updated ( Monday, 29 October 2007 )
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Collated Polls up to 26 October
Friday, 26 October 2007

 We now have a complete summary of the first round of election campaign polls.

This is a weighted average of the results which takes into account the sample sizes.  The TPP is allocated to the ALP @ 75% of the Green vote and 45% of the Others, which translates to 62.7% of the preferences.

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Last Updated ( Friday, 26 October 2007 )
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Aristotle's 1996 vs 2007 Analysis (October 2)
Sunday, 07 October 2007

We now have a large bank of polling data in 2007 and it's very interesting to compare the patterns with the lead up to the 1996 election. (see tables below)

In 1995, 10 months of polls combined, compared with what was actually achieved in the election, was within 0.1% of the L/NP primary vote (47.1 vs 47.0), 0.3% of the ALP primary vote (38.4 vs 38.7), and 0.2% of the two party vote.  Extraordinarily accurate.

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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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Aristotle's Polling Summary (October 1)
Sunday, 07 October 2007

The last 70 poll including the latest Newspoll (October 1st). TPP calculated at 60% of Others vote going to the ALP.

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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 October 2007 )
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