Comments (40) | Views: 2654

There is a commonly held perception that for the ALP to win the 2007 Federal Election, they must gain somewhere in the vicinity of 51% of the Two-Party Preferred (2PP) vote.  This perception is based on the 1998 result, where Kym Beazley exceeded 50% 2PP, but did not win.  Recent election results have indicated that the electorate has changed, and the result will not be this way in 2007. 

By analysing past election results, from 1996-2004, we can use probability formulae to predict the potential result for any given seat, and count up the predicted seat wins for each party, based on these past results.

Comments (51) | Views: 2774

Again we see the possibility that Galaxy has been push polling. On the News Ltd website there are two different interactive versions of the Galaxy poll - one with a total of 5 questions, and one with a total of 9. The questions are numbered, thus suggesting they were asked in that order.

Let's have a close look at these questions...

Comments (51) | Views: 5186

Well, not so much.

Galaxy has the 2pp vote at 53-47, 45-43 on primaries.

AC Nielsen has the 2pp vote at 54-46, 48-42 on primaries.

What is interesting to note - and what should calm those nerves - is that Labor's primary vote has held firm. It has only dipped one point on the Galaxy poll, and remained steady in the Nielsen poll.

Thus, it seems that the Coalition has managed to bring voters across from the minor parties.

Make no mistake, Labor is in election-winning territory with a primary vote above 45% as they will receive above 65% of minor party preferences.

Graphs below.

Comments (39) | Views: 1513

Comments (51) | Views: 3831

Howard announces a nationwide ban on headscarves in the public school system.

Won't happen you say?

Well, maybe it won't, but what if it did? How would the voting public react? This is one of those emotive wedges that fires up opinions in the voting public.

Comments (33) | Views: 1044