Well, not so much.

Galaxy has the 2pp vote at 53-47, 45-43 on primaries.

AC Nielsen has the 2pp vote at 54-46, 48-42 on primaries.

What is interesting to note - and what should calm those nerves - is that Labor's primary vote has held firm. It has only dipped one point on the Galaxy poll, and remained steady in the Nielsen poll.

Thus, it seems that the Coalition has managed to bring voters across from the minor parties.

Make no mistake, Labor is in election-winning territory with a primary vote above 45% as they will receive above 65% of minor party preferences.

Graphs below.

Comments (39) | Views: 1513

The underlying position of the Australian economy is very strong. It is, in my view, very, very likely that the RBA will raise rates within the next 3 months or so. The far more intriguing question is whether or not the RBA will raise rates before the next Federal election. As I write, the Federal election has not yet been called, but I am writing on the assumption that the election will be between 24 November and 8 December, probably later rather than earlier.

Comments (48) | Views: 3023

Comments (51) | Views: 3831

Howard announces a nationwide ban on headscarves in the public school system.

Won't happen you say?

Well, maybe it won't, but what if it did? How would the voting public react? This is one of those emotive wedges that fires up opinions in the voting public.

Comments (33) | Views: 1044

Comments (36) | Views: 4470

Update:

Howard slipped up today when questioned on A Current Affair - he could not name the correct interest rate. Quoting 6.25% instead of 6.5%. I wonder if this will get anywhere near the same coverage that Rudd's tax-scale slip-up received from the mainstream-media... 

Earlier:

And now we have... TAX CUTS!

$34 billion worth from Howard & Costello.

Initial analysis gives about a $20/week cut for middle-income earners in the next financial year. An amount that would get wiped out by an interest rate rise expected either on November 7 or early December (just after the election!).

The media is giving it a favourable run, but I wouldn't be surprised to see no poll bounce for the Coalition. Anyone remember the post-budget bounce that failed to materialise?

Rudd seemed to indicate that his response is a couple of weeks away. My advice would be to shift more emphasis towards lower & middle income earners. There's a decent-sized cut for the top income-earners which could be shifted down to the lower brackets instead.

Comments (40) | Views: 1573

So it looks like Howard might call the eleciton this Sunday for November 24. Dennis Shanahan seems to think so anyway. The Daily Telegraph is also running with the same line.

Make sure you've enrolled to vote! You can fax a form through to the AEC the day the election is called and it will be counted. Posting it that day is not enough, as they must have received the application on the day.

 More later...

Comments (42) | Views: 1206

The site updates will return to normal on Wednesday afternoon.

For now... a brief update:

The Death Penalty

 The Australian is running with a headline on Labor's move to pressure neighbouring Asian countries to abandon the death penalty. In true, objective fashion, the Australian labels the article "Save Bali bombers: Labor"

Comments (458) | Views: 919