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| Past 2PP results Written by Scott McCamish, on 22-10-2007 00:48 Past 2PP may or may not be reliable indicators, and time will tell on that. We'll see how close this model comes in comparison with other election calculators out there, which are all - as far as I've noticed anyway - based on applying a uniform swing to all seats. As for applying demographics across seats, that's beyond the scope of what I was trying to achieve, but it might be an interesting project for the future. To try and explain why the above data came out the way it did, showign that a reverse of the 1998 resul is now required: 1. Re-distributions have affected some seats, and 2. The swings in recent years have been more unpredictable, which skews the overall 2PP trend. On point 2. above, I have data that confirms this, and I will post in a separate article at a later date. |
