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| Do you think past 2PP results are reliab Written by Adrian Liston, on 22-10-2007 00:34 I mean, if Rudd is to win where Latham lost, that implies that Rudd is either picking up a new demographic for Labor or expanding the existing one. If it is expansion, then past 2PP results seem quite reasonable, but if it is picking up a new demographic (for example high income socially liberally votes in traditional Liberal strongholds) doesn't it fail? In this second scenario aren't you better off plotting Liberal/Labor polling in demographic groups and extrapolating that onto each seat? Anyway, thanks for the interesting read, it'll be fascinating to see how it plays out. |
