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| Explanation Written by Scott McCamish, on 21-10-2007 23:24 The difference between the two models are: 1. Antony green's calculator applies a swing evenly across all seats, regardless of the current margin in that seat. 2. My model uses past 2PP results to establish a longer term trend on a seat-by-seat basis. Because swings are never uniform from one seat to the next, I aimed to produce a more granular model, focussed not on applying uniform swings, but looking at how the 2PP vote for a given seat compares to the state 2PP result. I found, in most cases, remarkably similar results from one election to the next. These trends are then plugged into a probability formula, and that probability result is used to say that a certain seat is "likely" to fall one way or the other. Whether it does or doesn't is immaterial. My model is designed to predict the overall seat count, and not an individual seat result. I intend to publish a table of seat 2PP predictions in the last week of the election campaign, base on an average of the major polls of that week. We'll then have a checklist, and see how this model goes in terms of predicting actual seat results. Thanks for the question.  |
